In recent years, two parallel research trends have emerged in machine learning, yet their intersections remain largely unexplored. On one hand, there has been a significant increase in literature focused on Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) modeling, particularly targeting the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) using meta-learner techniques. These approaches often aim to identify causal effects from observational data. On the other hand, the field of Explainable Machine Learning (XML) has gained traction, with various approaches developed to explain complex models and make their predictions more interpretable. A prominent technique in this area is Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), which has become mainstream in data science for analyzing supervised learning models. However, there has been limited exploration of SHAP application in identifying predictive biomarkers through CATE models, a crucial aspect in pharmaceutical precision medicine. We address inherent challenges associated with the SHAP concept in multi-stage CATE strategies and introduce a surrogate estimation approach that is agnostic to the choice of CATE strategy, effectively reducing computational burdens in high-dimensional data. Using this approach, we conduct simulation benchmarking to evaluate the ability to accurately identify biomarkers using SHAP values derived from various CATE meta-learners and Causal Forest.

To test scientific theories and develop individualized treatment rules, researchers often wish to learn heterogeneous treatment effects that can be consistently found across diverse populations and contexts. We consider the problem of generalizing heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) based on data from multiple sites. A key challenge is that a target population may differ from the source sites in unknown and unobservable ways. This means that the estimates from site-specific models lack external validity, and a simple pooled analysis risks bias. We develop a robust CATE (conditional average treatment effect) estimation methodology with multisite data from heterogeneous populations. We propose a minimax-regret framework that learns a generalizable CATE model by minimizing the worst-case regret over a class of target populations whose CATE can be represented as convex combinations of site-specific CATEs. Using robust optimization, the proposed methodology accounts for distribution shifts in both individual covariates and treatment effect heterogeneity across sites. We show that the resulting CATE model has an interpretable closed-form solution, expressed as a weighted average of site-specific CATE models. Thus, researchers can utilize a flexible CATE estimation method within each site and aggregate site-specific estimates to produce the final model. Through simulations and a real-world application, we show that the proposed methodology improves the robustness and generalizability of existing approaches.

Estimating causal effects is vital for decision making. In standard causal effect estimation, treatments are usually binary- or continuous-valued. However, in many important real-world settings, treatments can be structured, high-dimensional objects, such as text, video, or audio. This provides a challenge to traditional causal effect estimation. While leveraging the shared structure across different treatments can help generalize to unseen treatments at test time, we show in this paper that using such structure blindly can lead to biased causal effect estimation. We address this challenge by devising a novel contrastive approach to learn a representation of the high-dimensional treatments, and prove that it identifies underlying causal factors and discards non-causally relevant factors. We prove that this treatment representation leads to unbiased estimates of the causal effect, and empirically validate and benchmark our results on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Ads supply personalization aims to balance the revenue and user engagement, two long-term objectives in social media ads, by tailoring the ad quantity and density. In the industry-scale system, the challenge for ads supply lies in modeling the counterfactual effects of a conservative supply treatment (e.g., a small density change) over an extended duration. In this paper, we present a streamlined framework for personalized ad supply. This framework optimally utilizes information from data collection policies through the doubly robust learning. Consequently, it significantly improves the accuracy of long-term treatment effect estimates. Additionally, its low-complexity design not only results in computational cost savings compared to existing methods, but also makes it scalable for billion-scale applications. Through both offline experiments and online production tests, the framework consistently demonstrated significant improvements in top-line business metrics over months. The framework has been fully deployed to live traffic in one of the world's largest social media platforms.

Estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is an important topic in various fields such as medical and social sciences. CATEs can be estimated with high accuracy if distributed data across multiple parties can be centralized. However, it is difficult to aggregate such data if they contain privacy information. To address this issue, we proposed data collaboration double machine learning (DC-DML), a method that can estimate CATE models with privacy preservation of distributed data, and evaluated the method through numerical experiments. Our contributions are summarized in the following three points. First, our method enables estimation and testing of semi-parametric CATE models without iterative communication on distributed data. Semi-parametric or non-parametric CATE models enable estimation and testing that is more robust to model mis-specification than parametric models. However, to our knowledge, no communication-efficient method has been proposed for estimating and testing semi-parametric or non-parametric CATE models on distributed data. Second, our method enables collaborative estimation between different parties as well as multiple time points because the dimensionality-reduced intermediate representations can be accumulated. Third, our method performed as well or better than other methods in evaluation experiments using synthetic, semi-synthetic and real-world datasets.